THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED WHEN THE NEW METHODOLOGY IS AVAILABLE FROM DFE
Below we will detail the methodology used to calculate progress scores in Nexus analysis for 2021 and until DfE publish the new methodology in 2022 following collection of KS2 results. This is used in 2021 primary imports (actual results for LA/schools who wished to submit) and 2022 predicted outcomes imports. It will - temporarily - be in place for 2022 KS1-KS2 progress until the DfE methodology is clear.
Since the 2020 and 2021 statutory assessments did not take place as expected in the Primary phase, DfE have never published their methodology for KS1 to KS2 which initially needed to change in 2020 to account for the first set of KS1 results under the new framework in 2016. What follows represents the best estimate of NCER and Angel Solutions on the likely methodology in the absence of any official publication.
Rules around pupils excluded from progress calculations
Pupils who do not have Key Stage 1 data for ALL of English reading, English writing and mathematics are not included in the Progress measure.
Pupils with KS1 outcomes of M, D and A are not given a Prior Attainment Group (PAG) and are therefore also excluded from progress calculations.
KS1 Points Assignment
Points are assigned to pupils based on their KS1 outcomes, see the table below for details of the points assigned to each outcome. Though P Scales are no longer in use from 2022 onwards, pupils coming through for progress calculations were assessed at KS1 under the pre-Engagement Model system and so the values are still valid for progress.
English reading and writing rules
If a pupil was teacher assessed as below the pre key stage level 1 (BLW), but has P4-8 in reading, the P scales score is used as the points score.
If a pupil does not have P4-8 in reading, but has P1i-P3ii in English, this is used as the points score.
If a pupil was teacher-assessed as working towards level 1, but does not have P4-8 in reading or P1i-P3ii in English, then they are given three points.
If a pupil was teacher-assessed as below the pre key stage level 1 (BLW), but has P4-8 in use of mathematics, numbers and shapes, an average is taken.
If a pupil does not have P4-8 in mathematics, numbers and shapes, but does have P1i-P3ii in mathematics, then the P scales score is used as the points score.
If a pupil was teacher-assessed as working towards level 1, but does not have P4-8 in mathematics, numbers and shapes or P1i-P3ii in mathematics, then they are given three points.
Calculating an average point score
To calculate a KS1 average points score (APS).
Average the English Reading & English Writing points scores.
Take the result of above and average that with the Maths outcome.
- This has the effect of double-weighting Maths and giving it the same proportion of the APS as both elements of English combined.
Points assigned to KS1 outcomes
Prior attainment groups based on points spread
|Prior Attainment Group (PAG)||KS1 Average Points Score Range||Prior Attainment Band|
|1||>=2 to <2.4||Low|
|2||>=2 to <2.4||Low|
|3||>=2.4 to <2.7||Low|
|4||>=2.7 to <5.1||Low|
|5||>=5.1 to <8||Low|
|6||>=8 to <9.1||Low|
|7||>=9.1 to <10.6||Low|
|8||>=10.6 to <12.1||Low|
|9||>=12.1 to <13.6||Low|
|10||>=13.6 to <14.1||Middle|
|11||>=14.1 to <15.6||High|
|12||>=15.6 to <=17||High|
Key Stage 2
English reading and maths are usually recorded using scaled score between 80 and 120 however in 2021 all subjects will be using imported Primary Outcome data based on Teacher Assessment judgements that must be assigned a fixed value (shown in the table below).
Any pupils that are imported without an outcome will be included in cohort numbers but not progress coverage for that subject.
- The following points will be assigned to predicted outcomes in reading, writing and maths based on the aforementioned teacher assessments.
|HGH or GDS||113|