Below we will detail the methodology used to calculate progress scores in Nexus analysis for 2021 and until DfE publish the new methodology in 2022 following collection of KS2 results. This is used in 2021 primary imports (actual results for LA/schools who wished to submit) and 2022 predicted outcomes imports.
Status
Since the 2020 and 2021 statutory assessments did not take place as expected in the Primary phase, DfE have never published their methodology for KS1 to KS2 which initially needed to change in 2020 to account for the first set of KS1 results under the new framework in 2016. What follows represents the best estimate of NCER and Angel Solutions on the likely methodology in the absence of any official publication.
Rules around pupils excluded from progress calculations

Pupils who do not have Key Stage 1 data for ALL of English reading, English writing and mathematics are not included in the Progress measure.

Pupils with KS1 outcomes of M, D and A are not given a Prior Attainment Group (PAG) and are therefore also excluded from progress calculations.
KS1 Points Assignment
Points are assigned to pupils based on their KS1 outcomes, see the table below for details of the points assigned to each outcome.
English reading and writing rules

If a pupil was teacher assessed as below the pre key stage level 1 (BLW), but has P48 in reading, the P scales score is used as the points score.

If a pupil does not have P48 in reading, but has P1iP3ii in English, this is used as the points score.

If a pupil was teacherassessed as working towards level 1, but does not have P48 in reading or P1iP3ii in English, then they are given three points.
Maths rules

If a pupil was teacherassessed as below the pre key stage level 1 (BLW), but has P48 in use of mathematics, numbers and shapes, an average is taken.

If a pupil does not have P48 in mathematics, numbers and shapes, but does have P1iP3ii in mathematics, then the P scales score is used as the points score.

If a pupil was teacherassessed as working towards level 1, but does not have P48 in mathematics, numbers and shapes or P1iP3ii in mathematics, then they are given three points.
Calculating an average point score

To calculate a KS1 average points score (APS).

Average the English Reading & English Writing points scores.

Take the result of above and average that with the Maths outcome.

 This has the effect of doubleweighting Maths and giving it the same proportion of the APS as both elements of English combined.
Points assigned to KS1 outcomes
KS1 TA  Points 
GDS  17 
EXS  14 
WTS  11 
PKF  8 
BLW  5 
P8  2.75 
P7  2.50 
P6  2.25 
P5  2.00 
P4  1.75 
P3ii  1.50 
P3i  1.25 
P2ii  1.00 
P2i  0.75 
P1ii  0.50 
P1i  0.25 
Prior attainment groups based on points spread
Prior Attainment Group (PAG)  KS1 Average Points Score Range  Prior Attainment Band 
No APS  N/A  N/A 
1  >=2 to <2.4  Low 
2  >=2 to <2.4  Low 
3  >=2.4 to <2.7  Low 
4  >=2.7 to <5.1  Low 
5  >=5.1 to <8  Low 
6  >=8 to <9.1  Low 
7  >=9.1 to <10.6  Low 
8  >=10.6 to <12.1  Low 
9  >=12.1 to <13.6  Low 
10  >=13.6 to <14.1  Middle 
11  >=14.1 to <15.6  High 
12  >=15.6 to <=17  High 
Key Stage 2

English reading and maths are usually recorded using scaled score between 80 and 120 however in 2021 all subjects will be using imported Primary Outcome data based on Teacher Assessment judgements that must be assigned a fixed value (shown in the table below).

Any pupils that are imported without an outcome will be included in cohort numbers but not progress coverage for that subject.
 The following points will be assigned to predicted outcomes in reading, writing and maths based on the aforementioned teacher assessments.
 You will note from the table that PSCALE and EM (Engagement Model) have been assigned the same points value and in this transitional year are interchangeable in the imported results.
Predicted Outcome  Points 
HGH or GDS  113 
EXS  103 
WTS  91 
PK6  79 
PK5  76 
PK4  73 
PK3  70 
PK2  67 
PK1  64 
BLW  62 
PSCALES  60 
EM  60 
P4  61 
P3ii  59 
P3i  59 
P2ii  59 
P2i  59 
P1ii  59 
P1i  59 
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